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Prediction for CME (2020-12-30T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-12-30T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16294/-1
CME Note: Small eruption on the Earth-facing disk after 2020-12-30T01:00Z, east of AR12795 near S20E08, as best seen by SDO/AIA 193/211 and STEREO-A EUVI 195 (towards the Western limb of the STEREO-A-facing disk). The shock front is possibly seen in COR2A after 2020-12-30T02:00Z, but it is very difficult to measure given the CME is faint and the apparent brightness of the western streamer.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-01-02T02:11Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-12-30 09:06
-Time at C2: 2020-12-30 02:24
-Radial speed: 486.0 km/s
-Half angle: 32 deg
-Eruption location: N01E08

Inferences:
 - No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
 - In-situ shock speed: 551.80 km/s
 - Shock arrival time: 2021-01-02 02:11 (i.e. predicted transit time: 71.80 hours)

Lead Time: 33.68 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2020-12-31T16:30Z

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